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Bitcoin and XRP Show Strength as Crypto Market Finds Support from Trade Sentiment

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Bitcoin and XRP Outlook: Chart Structure Meets Global Sentiment Shift

As April 2025 unfolds, the cryptocurrency landscape is navigating a convergence of technical inflection points and macroeconomic developments. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP), two of the most closely watched assets in the digital asset space, are both testing critical levels. Price action is unfolding against a backdrop of easing trade tensions and anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. economic data — particularly inflation-related metrics and monetary policy signals.

This report takes a detailed look at BTC and XRP from a technical perspective using the daily timeframe, while also incorporating macro sentiment and economic context. While directional conviction remains moderate, the setup leans slightly bullish as traders weigh technical support zones against improving global sentiment.

BTC/USD Daily – Ascending Channel Structure Holds

Bitcoin has maintained its trajectory within a well-formed ascending channel, stretching back to mid-2023. Currently priced near $81,700, BTC has pulled back from its February all-time high around $100,000 but remains well within the bounds of its structural uptrend.

Technical Overview:

  • Channel Formation: BTC has respected a multi-month ascending channel with multiple clean touches on both upper and lower boundaries. The current retracement is testing the lower half of this range.

  • Support Zone: $76,000–$78,000 — a major confluence zone combining the lower channel trendline, prior demand areas, and local price memory.

  • Resistance Zone: $86,000–$88,000, aligned with the last major breakdown area and mid-channel resistance.

Momentum & Indicators:

  • Stochastic RSI: Rebounding from oversold territory, signaling growing potential for upward momentum if the recovery sustains.

  • MACD: Bearish momentum is weakening, with a potential crossover building — a historically reliable signal in similar zones.

Volume Insight:

Trading volume has tapered off slightly during the recent correction, which is not uncommon in a channel phase. A surge in volume near the $76K–$78K region could mark the beginning of another impulsive move upward.

Outlook:

As long as the channel base holds, BTC’s structure remains intact and leans bullish. A breakout above $88K would confirm a resumption of the trend, targeting $94K–$98K in the near term. However, a confirmed breakdown below $76K could lead to deeper retracement toward the $70K zone.

XRP/USD Daily – Horizontal Support Reinforced, Setup Stabilizing

XRP, currently hovering around $2.02, has shown resilience by repeatedly defending support levels near $1.85–$1.90. Unlike BTC, XRP’s structure is less vertically inclined and more range-bound — but that also suggests a phase of accumulation rather than distribution.

Technical Overview:

  • Support Range: $1.85–$1.90 remains a key floor, having been defended multiple times since December 2024.

  • Resistance Zones:

    • $2.20 – a near-term ceiling where price was rejected in March.

    • $2.75 – a broader resistance area near February’s highs.

Momentum & Indicators:

  • Stochastic RSI: Turning up from oversold conditions, indicating a potential upside move.

  • MACD: Currently flat, suggesting indecision, but no active bearish pressure. A crossover would provide an early signal for a push above $2.20.

Volume Insight:

Volume has contracted during the recent pullback — a pattern that typically precedes larger moves. Watch for a volume spike on a break above $2.20 to confirm bullish intent.

Outlook:

XRP continues to build a bullish base within a sideways consolidation. If price holds above $1.90 and clears $2.20, momentum could quickly extend toward the $2.75–$3.00 range. Breakdown risks increase only on a sustained close below $1.85.

Sentiment Check: A Pause in Tariffs, a Boost in Risk Appetite

Markets received a surprise lift earlier this week as the U.S. administration announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China. The move reduces import tariffs to 10% temporarily, giving room for trade negotiations and improving global investor sentiment.

Highlights:

  • Dow Jones surged 5.9%, S&P 500 rose 6.5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 8%, signaling broad optimism across equities.

  • Cryptocurrency markets mirrored this sentiment, with BTC and altcoins bouncing off key supports after several weeks of fatigue.

  • The tariff freeze is widely seen as a goodwill gesture to reset trade relations, while China remains on a separate, more aggressive tariff path.

“This is a proactive measure that shows the U.S. is serious about working with partners in good faith,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The crypto market often benefits during periods of risk-on sentiment, and this development gives short-term support to that thesis. Lower trade friction globally is also seen as a tailwind for cross-border payment tokens like XRP.

Upcoming Economic Data: Market Sensitivity Remains High

While the tariff story has captured headlines, the next two trading days may be even more pivotal for crypto assets, with several high-impact U.S. data releases on the horizon. Inflation and monetary policy will take center stage.

DateEventPreviousConsensusPotential Impact
Apr 10FOMC Meeting Minutes--Language on future rate hikes
Apr 10Core CPI MoM (Mar)0.2%0.3%Higher = risk-off, Lower = risk-on
Apr 10Core CPI YoY (Mar)3.1%3.0%Falling inflation = bullish crypto
Apr 10  Headline CPI YoY (Mar)2.8%2.6%Lower CPI may spur rally
Apr 11PPI MoM (Mar)0.0%0.2%Forward inflation gauge
Apr 11Michigan Consumer Sentiment57.054.5Strong sentiment = risk appetite

These figures will give critical clues about whether the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its hawkish stance or shift toward a more dovish path. Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to Fed policy, as it affects liquidity and investor willingness to seek high-volatility assets.

Final Thoughts: Leaning Bullish, With Caution

Both BTC and XRP are holding their ground at key support zones, backed by improving macro sentiment and favorable positioning on momentum indicators. While conviction remains cautious given recent volatility, the setup suggests a window of opportunity — especially if inflation data and Fed commentary are interpreted as dovish or neutral.

Key Scenarios to Watch:

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bullish breakout: Above $88K → Opens path to $94K–$98K

  • Bearish trigger: Below $76K → Eyes $70K range

Ripple (XRP)

  • Bullish continuation: Above $2.20 → Targets $2.75–$3.00

  • Bearish breakdown: Below $1.85 → Risk toward $1.70

Conclusion: Positioning for Opportunity

With sentiment recovering thanks to constructive trade policy and markets bracing for critical inflation data, BTC and XRP are at technical levels that could define the next leg of their respective moves. While risk remains — especially in the face of stubborn inflation — the current confluence of macro relief and technical support leans the outlook slightly bullish.

Investors would be wise to remain nimble, but also alert: if inflation comes in soft and trade dialogues remain calm, April may yet offer a fresh leg higher for crypto markets.



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